Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow : attempting to plan for coastal change in South West Victoria

摘要

Learn from yesterday, live for today hope for tomorrow. When Albert Einstein penned these opening words, the realm of planning was least on his mind despite the aptness of the thoughts. This paper, having regard to this quotation, questions whether demographic change in one coastal area is occurring at a faster rate than in non–coastal areas? The South West coastal area of Victoria, from 1981 onwards, has witnessed a dramatic increase in population and also major shifts in the social and economic characteristics of the region. What have been the historic demographic and employment characteristics of the area and has there been a shift in these characteristics leading to the rapid population growth? These questions are considered using the City of Warrnambool, the largest urban centre in South West Victoria, as a study vehicle. The impact of a growing population on the municipal landscape can be demanding in terms of land use planning, land supply and the urban design. This paper will review the population growth using a shift share analysis method compared against overall growth patterns in the Victorian state population and Australia overall. It will then examine government population forecasts for the City of Warrnambool and suggest those impacts upon the current City of Warrnambool landscape.